Monday, January 24, 2011

Where Will Vladimir Guerrero Play in 2011?

You may have seen local reports today that Nolan Ryan has said the team hasn't closed the door on bringing back Vladimir Guerrero, but that it still may be a long shot due to Vlad's desire to be an every day designated hitter.

It's no secret that the Rangers are looking for a big veteran bat to use off the bench in close and late situations, as Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez have both been rumored to be of interest to the club before signing elsewhere.  But Guerrero put up very good numbers last year and wanted to cash in on that this off-season.  However it looks like there are not any very good fits for him at this late point of the hot stove season.

I wrote about where Vlad might end up on November 5 last year and you can read that here if you need a refresher:

http://shagginflies.blogspot.com/2010/11/free-agent-vladimir-guerrero.html

That was before the Rangers missed out on Cliff Lee and brought in Adrian Beltre, moving Michael Young to the primary DH spot in the process.  Let's look at the teams around the American League now that two and a half months have passed, signings and trades have filled most of the rosters, and see where Vlad might fit.

AL East:
  • Yankees:  Jorge Posada has been shifted from full-time catcher to DH for 2011.  Though they can afford anybody, it doesn't look like they have the roster spot for him right now.
  • Red Sox:  Boston brought back David Ortiz and upgraded the offense with Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.  Vlad wouldn't have an everyday role there.
  • Rays:  Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon just signed there, so the DH spot will be filled by one of them this year.  (I still can't believe they are going to let one of them play the outfield.)
  • Blue Jays:  They now have Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli in addition to Adam Lind, each of whom do not offer much in the way of defense.  That means the DH spot will probably be filled by one of those three guys, just not sure who yet.  I still say that playing 81 games on artificial turf would be a bad idea for Vlad and his beat up knees.
  • Orioles:  They have been the team most closely linked to Guerrero, but have shot down rumors in the last few days that a deal is close to getting done.  Vlad would have to beat out Luke Scott or share time with him in the DH role.
AL Central:
  • Twins:  Jim Thome re-signed with Minnesota, and they have two spots for Thome, Jason Kubel, and Michael Cuddyer to fight over.  No room for Vladdy.
  • White Sox:  I had them picked as a team that might be a fit for Vlad, that was until they re-signed Paul Konerko and brought in Adam Dunn to fill the first base and DH positions.
  • Tigers:  Detroit has wiggle room on their roster to make Vladdy fit.  If Victor Martinez catches, Magglio Ordonez plays right, and Brennan Boesch plays left, Guerrero could DH for them.  However, their team depth chart shows Martinez at DH with Alex Avila catching, and curiously does not have Boesch starting, with Ryan Raburn in left instead.  It's just a matter of if they want to pay for an older player to take a spot that could be filled by a younger guy like Boesch or Raburn.
  • Indians:  The Tribe has been in re-building mode lately and they already have an older, pricey DH in Travis Hafner.  I wouldn't rule it out, but it doesn't seem to be a fit.
  • Royals:  With a farm system on the verge of blooming, they aren't going to pay for an aging DH at this point.  They will give their young guys every opportunity over the next year or two, and they should be good again pretty soon, despite trading away Greinke.
AL West:
  • Rangers:  Management has said they would take Vlad back at a lesser role.  Young is going to get most of the DH at-bats and fill in around the infield.  The DH spot will also be used to rest some of the regulars and keep their bats in the lineup.  If an injury were to take out one of our main offensive threats, a slot could open up where Guerrero could get regular at-bats.
  • Angels:  The Halos just traded Napoli and Rivera to the Blue Jays for Vernon Wells, which pushes Bobby Abreu to full-time DH, most likely.  It wouldn't shock me to see Vlad go back there, but the Angels have other greater needs, such as third base, and they just took on a huge financial commitment in acquiring Wells. 
  • A's:  Oakland imported Hideki Matsui from the Angels and also brought in outfielders David DeJesus and Josh Willingham this off-season.  I had guessed that this might be a fit for Guerrero earlier in the off-season, but it doesn't look to be such a good match now.
  • Mariners:  The Mariners are coming off of a horrible season and have already locked up a DH in Jack Cust.  Milton Bradley is still on their roster and could fill that position, too.  The Mariners aren't really spending this off-season, and I don't think they'd make an exception for Guerrero.
So it looks like the potential fits would be Baltimore, Detroit, Texas, and Los Angeles/Anaheim/Orange County/Disneyland.

There is one interesting little twist that might come up if Vlad decides he is willing to be a bat off the bench.  In such a situation, he might be attractive to a few National League teams, as long as they have enough versatile players on their bench to make up for Vlad's inability to play the field in a double switch situation.  That being said, I'll be shocked if he ends up in the NL.

It has to be frustrating for Guerrero to be sitting at home without a job lined up this close to Spring Training.  At this point last year, he had trouble finding a team, but it was because he was coming off of a down year plagued by injuries.  This time he's coming off a year where he was healthy all season, and put up numbers consistent with his very productive career.  Honestly, I'm surprised he's still on the street after Thome, Damon, and Ramirez have all signed.

I'd be happy if he decided to come back here to take a role player position on this team.  With injury prone players like Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, and Ian Kinsler on this club, there will be plenty of at-bats for someone like him at some point during the season.  I'm not so sure that he's cut out to play 162 games anymore, or at least thats what it looked like during the second half of 2010.  He could stay fresh and thrive at the plate all season if he's only playing three times a week, in addition to pinch hitting when needed.  I don't think he'll come back here, but I'd be excited if he did.  I sure don't want to have to pitch to that guy again.

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