Free Agent: Vladimir Guerrero

Perhaps you've heard over the last couple of days that the Rangers and Vladimir Guerrero decided not to exercise the option year on his contract, meaning that he is now a free agent available for any team to sign.

The Rangers have said that even though they declined the option, they are still interested in working something out to bring Big Bad Vlad back for '11. Even with that being said, it's easy to jump to the conclusion that the Rangers just wanted to dump their aging clean-up hitter after his slumping performance in the second half and playoffs. Before you get that far, read what Jamey Newberg wrote this morning:

Mutual options almost never get mutually exercised, as we talked about at length last winter when the Rangers tacked them onto Guerrero’s and Rich Harden’s one-year contracts. Texas, strapped for cash and constrained by a bright-line budget at the time of the deals, proposed the mutual option in each case as a creative way to pay Guerrero and Harden an extra $1 million but defer it for a year – in the form of a buyout of the putative option.

Daniels made it clear yesterday that there was never any intent at the time of the deal with Guerrero for either side to exercise the mutual option, and so the team’s decision to decline it wasn’t really a decision at all, and yesterday’s announcement certainly wasn’t one that Guerrero and his agents were perked up and waiting for. He’s now a free agent, yes, but this was a one-year contract all along, dressed up as one plus an option as a way to boost the deal by $1 million without having to pay that bump until this off-season.

So don't think that either side is upset with the other or cutting ties. Yes, there is a chance he does not come back, but that bridge is not burned and I would not be surprised to see him back with us next season.

But let's look at the alternatives for the Rangers and for Guerrerro.

First for Guerrero. It's quite obvious that he is now almost exclusively a designated hitter, and thus is bound to playing for one of the 14 American League clubs. Here's a rundown to see where he might fit.

AL EAST:

• Yankees: They'll sign anybody if they want them, even if they already have a similar piece on the roster. Never count them out.
• Red Sox: They just picked up David Ortiz's option. Not a fit.
• Rays: They are cutting payroll, probably losing Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and/or Rafael Soriano. I doubt they'd spend their limited payroll on an aging DH.
• Blue Jays: They hit the most homeruns in baseball last year with the team they had, so they do not really need another power hitter to improve their club. Add to that they play 81 games on artificial surface, which wrecked Vlad's legs when he played in Montreal, and this is not a good fit, either.
• Orioles: It's not impossible, but I don't see him signing for a team that would have to enjoy a miraculous season to break into the top three in their own division.

AL CENTRAL:

• Twins: They would probably rather keep Jim Thome than replace him with Guerrero. Not likely, here.
• White Sox: This could be a fit, with Ozzie Guillen managing, a hole in the lineup assuming Paul Konerko leaves, and their 2010 DH's consisted of guys like Andruw Jones. He could help them.
• Tigers: Not feeling anything one way or the other here. Strong maybe.
• Indians: I can't see Vlad going to a rebuilding club, and I'm not sure, but I think they still have Travis Hafner as their DH next year.
• Royals: See Orioles and Indians.

AL WEST:

• Rangers: He's had success here, has friends here, and appears to still be on good terms.
• Angels: He's had success here, has friends here, and might still be mad that they cut him loose in the first place. Not sure he'd go back there. The DH spot there is held by Hideki Matsui, with Bobby Abreu or Juan Rivera ready to move in there if Matsui is gone.
• A's: They pitched great last year and were hurt by their offense. A buy-low pick up would seem to fit with them, especially with last year's DH Jack Cust being a free agent as well. I'd be afraid if he wound up here.
• Mariners: They need help everywhere, but are probably in more of a building mode, and Vlad's power numbers would drop considerably in SafeCo Field.

So my guess is that his main potential employers would be the Rangers, White Sox, A's, Yankees, Tigers, and maybe the Angels. If I were in his shoes, I'd just be content to coming back to the team that just brought me to the World Series.

Now, on the Rangers side of things, how well does Vlad fit in the plans going forward? Who else could fill his shoes?

It's been suggested before that Michael Young might end his career as a DH, and his range at third base seemed to shrink from 2009 to 2010. If the Rangers found a middle of the order thirdbaseman, Young could be moved to DH as soon as 2011. I doubt that is what we will see, though.

More likely we will see an older veteran brought in to be the everyday DH. There's been a revolving door of those players over the past decade. Prior to Guerrero, remember Sammy Sosa, Brian Jordan, Richard Hidalgo, Rafael Palmeiro, Juan Gonzalez, Carl Everett, and I'm sure I'm forgetting even more.

So besides Vlad, who's available? Well, on the trade market, it's hard to say who would be available right now, so let's focus on the free agent pool.

• Jack Cust - Hits homeruns, walks, and strikes out. Doesn't do much more than that. Bleh.
• Jim Thome - Great clubhouse guy, can still hit, might not be available for 150+ games. Looks like he'll return to the Twins.
• Aubrey Huff - Fort Worth kid and World Series foe. He can still play some first base and right field, but the Giants are already planning to make him an offer to stay. He led that team in homeruns.
• Adam Dunn - Another Texas boy, and a guy that can rival Josh Hamilton on homerun distance and frequency, the switch hitter would be an awesome fit to the lineup. However, he'll have plenty of teams interested in him, which should drive up his asking price, perhaps out of the Rangers budget.
• Manny Ramirez - He can still hit, but he can still ruin good clubhouse mojo, too. Unless you want the baseball version of T.O., leave him alone.
• Magglio Ordonez - He's an injury risk and about the same age as Vlad. Depending on what he'd be asking, I'd be willing to consider him.
• Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Russell Branyan, Pat Burrell - Thanks, but no thanks.

So if I'm Jon Daniels and Company, my wishlist, in order, would be Dunn, Guerrero, Ordonez, Huff, Thome.

It's not a long shot for Guerrero to be back here in 2011, and it's not a slam dunk, either. I wouldn't mind seeing him around again, but I wouldn't expect another year of .300 average, 29 homers, and 100+ RBI.

This will be an interesting one to watch.