Free Agent: Cliff Lee

Obviously, the biggest story of this offseason for the Rangers is whether or not they can convince Cliff Lee to come back to Texas for the long haul.  I've avoided mentioning this story until now, because it was not relevant until now.  When the guy is leading your team into the World Series, it's not time to focus on whether or not he will be here for future seasons.  It's about the here and now, and the rest will be settled after the World Series is settled.  Now that the Series is over, we can safely cover this topic.

Do the Rangers have a legitimate shot at keeping him?  I think they do.  And I'm more optimistic about it now than when he was traded from Seattle in July.

What makes Texas attractive to Lee? 

• Cliff and his family live in Little Rock, Arkansas, and the Rangers are the closest team to home.  He has already said that the comfort of his family will play a role in his decision-making process.  By the way, Yankees fans threw beer and spit at the Rangers families, including Lee's wife, when the Rangers played the ALCS games in New York.  He has said that those fans will not sway his decision, but it could go a long way in making up his wife's mind.
• He was able to spend over three months with this team, get to know the players here, gel with them, and tag along for the greatest playoff ride in franchise history.
• This team made it to the World Series, so he can't use the excuse that he wants to go to another team to "play for a winning franchise," as many other free agent pitchers have said when turning us down (Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, etc.) 
• We are young, and can be good for a long time, especially with him at the top of the rotation. 
• The new ownership group has shown they aren't afraid to go out and get what we need to put the team in the best position to win.
• Texas can offer a little less money overall than some other teams and Lee could still end up making more due to the differences in state income taxes.

His interaction with his teammates and the team's success in the postseason are the biggest reasons I give the Rangers a better chance of keeping him than when the trade was made in July.

Everyone assumes that the Yankees will make a push to sign him, and many believe it's a slam dunk he'll be pitching for New York next year.  Don't be so sure.  Peter Gammons has a knack for being in the know, and he's stated in the last week that Cliff Lee will be signing with the Rangers.  I don't know if that was a hunch, something he heard whispered, or if he knows that for sure somehow, because I didn't get the quote in full context, but that's the first reputable media person I've heard that's given the Rangers the advantage.

There will be teams outside of the Rangers and Yankees bidding for Lee's services, but it's not as if all 30 clubs will be able to afford the paycheck he'll be sure to command on the market.  This will come down to five teams or less.

My prediction is that the Rangers put enough money on the table to get the deal done.  The Rangers alternatives for Plan B are such a downgrade that they can't afford to lose out on this one, especially in the eyes of the fanbase that is still riding high on Ranger adrenaline.  If the Yankees can't get him, they'll just throw money at other free agents, or money and prospects at other teams, and improve their club in another way.  We don't have that luxury, so Jon Daniels and the ownership group need to do everything possible to make sure we get this guy back.

Either way, his new nickname by Spring Training could be Expensive Lee.  Who do you think wins the Cliff Lee sweepstakes?