Trade Possibility - Zack Greinke

It's been reported that the Rangers are interested in acquiring 2009 Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke from the Kansas City Royals.  No deal is imminent, and other teams are also in the hunt for him, even though the Royals are not agressively shopping him at the moment, but let's take a look in depth anyway.

Greinke, who is 27, was the sixth overall pick in the 2002 draft by the Royals.  The righthander came up in 2004 and went 13-28 for KC in his first two seasons.  He missed most of 2006 with anxiety issues.  When he came back in 2007, he only started 14 of his 52 appearances but experienced moderate success for the first time since his rookie year.  In 2008, he went 13-10, finishing with a record over .500, throwing 200+ innings, and posting an ERA under 3.50 for the first time.

He broke out big time in 2009, winning the Cy Young Award by going 16-8, with a 2.16 ERA.  He had a 242/51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 229.1 innings.  Winning 16 games for the Royals is a feat in itself.

However, Greinke did not have a great 2010.  I know, because I had him on my fantasy team and was disappointed by many of his starts.  He struggled a few times with low run support, but other times he was just flat-out bad.  He went 10-14 and posted a 4.17 ERA, his highest since his bout with anxiety.  That doesn't make him a horrible pitcher, but it does show that he might not be a lock down ace every year.

The Royals have him under contract through the 2012 season, but might want to trade him if they decide they will not be able to re-sign him beyond that.  Greinke has a limited no-trade clause, and can name 15 teams he won't accept a trade to if the Royals decide to move him.  He's already stated he doesn't want to pitch in a big market, so you can bet the Yankees are on his no-trade list.

Timing is a big factor here.  After the 2011 season, he loses his no-trade rights until the contract is up in 2012, so he will probably push for a trade between now and the July 31 deadline.  After that, he runs the risk of the Royals shipping him to a big market team where he doesn't want to pitch.

I don't expect that he will be traded until after Cliff Lee signs, so Kansas City can maximize his value as the top pitcher available and shop him to the teams that missed out on Lee.

However, it's not out of the question that the Rangers could get Lee and Greinke.  That's coming from the organization, not me.

So what would it take to get him?  Well, reports have stated the Royals want a return that includes a young, major league ready starting pitcher, a blue-chip prospect (most likely also a pitcher), and another top position player.

The Rangers have one of the deepest farm systems in the league, and would probably be able to afford such a haul if that's what it takes.  The farm depth, as well as the team's location not being an overbearing big baseball city, gives the Rangers a legitimate shot at making a deal happen.

Don't be surprised, though, if either Derek Holland or Tommy Hunter is involved in the talks, along with top pitching prospects Tanner Scheppers and Martin Perez, among others.  Would it be worth it to give up those top guys for a young pitcher with ace potential, but one that has issues with anxiety and seems to shy away from being in the spotlight?  That's hard to say.

In my opinion, if the Rangers retain Cliff Lee, I'd love to get Greinke to set up the one-two punch at the top of the rotation, and be able to follow that with CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis.  That's a strong staff, and Greinke would not have to bear the brunt of the pressure that comes along with being the team's star pitching ace in charge of getting us back to the World Series.

But if the Rangers don't bring back Lee, there aren't a whole lot of better options than Greinke to try to fill his role.  I don't think he would be as successful in the spotlight without Lee here to take most of that, but getting him would help soften the sting of losing Lee just a little bit.

Like I said at the outset, this is an option, but it doesn't appear imminent, and don't expect anything to go down before Lee signs here or elsewhere.  It's just good to know that this year the Rangers can be considered contenders to get some of the best players available, and not have to perform magic tricks under tight Tom Hicks budget constraints.